THE SAINTS ARE COMING

In Tuesday's blog, I devised a plan for the Saints to make the playoffs. It was a simple formula that can easily come true. Not too many people, however, were jumping on the bandwagon. Actually, only Bert really seemed to agree with me.

With the NFC South teams undefeated at home against each other going for the Saints (and the fact that they've played pretty well for several weeks in a row, despite a loss at Tampa), I was convinced all week that the Saints were going to win Sunday.

I did not waver from that opinion. Even after the Saints were losing after three quarters, and I know that Payton is 0-17 with the Saints when trailing at the start of the final quarter. I just knew they were pulling this one out. That's because I know the Saints are going to the playoffs.

Let's take a quick look at what the Saints now need.

1) Eagles to lose one game.
2) Falcons to lose one of the next two games.
3) Redskins to lose one game.
4) Cowboys to lose two of the final three games.

See, simple. The major drawback is that the Eagles play both the Redskins and Cowboys. Philly hosts the Browns on MNF this week. If Cleveland could pull off a win, then we can become Eagles fans. If not, we need Philly to lose to either the Cowboys or Redskins.

Which means the Redskins when that have to lose either at Cincy (uh, no) or at San Fran (possible). Or the Cowboys would have to lose to both the Giants and Ravens (both at home) in the next two weeks.

Here's my guess for how the Saints reach the postseason:
1) Saints win out.
2) Falcons lose at Vikings.
3) Cowboys lose to Ravens and Eagles.
4) Eagles lose to Redskins.
5) Redskins lose to 49ers.

That's just one of the many groupings that land the Saints in the playoffs. I only picked that one because it creates the most drama on the final week. (The Saints would need three games to all go their way to take the final spot.) Special thanks to the Steelers and Ravens for helping out this week. And I'm mooning the Giants for their failure to make this whole thing easier.

Time for Saints notes

1) The Saints are piss-poor at the two-minute drill. Seriously. They don't understand the rules. They ended up getting a field goal Sunday at the end of the first half because of some nice plays. The clock management, however, was god-awful.

I believe the rule is: Under five minutes left in the game, go out of bounds and the clock stops. But in the first half, it's only under two minutes. So, when Reggie ran out of bounds with 2:08 remaining, the clock stopped but restarted when the ball was set. Except that the Saints huddled up and called a play like the clock was not going to restart.

The Saints should have had two plays called when they went out on the field to start the two-minute drill with 2:13 to go, in case the first play resulted in some one going out of bounds. Then, you get to the line (you have a little time while the clock stops to reset the ball) and run that second called play. But because the Saints are idiots, they only ran one play before the two-minute warning.

Red Meat was clearly the most confused. He was out there arguing with the ump about the clock winding down. THIS JUST HAPPENED THREE WEEKS AGO.

2) Saints record when Lopes is there: 5-0.
Saints record when I'm there: 3-0.
Saints record when I watch alone: 3-0.
Saints record when I watch with Paul: 0-4.

Note: I will be at work for Thursday's game and will be avoiding Paul on Sundays thereafter.

3) I watched the game from home today. I love this being able to rewind live TV thing. Sunday was the first time I've ever really taken advantage of the feature. It is awesome. I missed some plays while talking to mom, getting dressed and taking a shower. But yet I still saw every play. Oh yeah.

4) Here's a play I've grown tired of seeing in general: QB takes the snap, fakes a toss to the left and bootlegs. The offensive line lets the left defensive end go unblocked on purpose. The DE gets really excited and sprints at the QB. The QB then calmly flips the ball over his head to a wide open tight end or fullback or receiver, who is wide fucking open in the right flat, the space the DE just vacated.

How come the DE never realizes they let him go to the QB on purpose to clear him out? It seems to me like 60 percent of the time, it works every time. Just once, I want the DE to realize this, stop and take away that little throw. I've seen that play gain way too many yards too easily.

5) The way the whole game played out seemed similar to the Bucs game at home to start the season. Saints get early lead off big play. Falcons/Bucs settle down and eventually take the lead. Saints make big play late in game for go-ahead touchdown. Defense makes final stop.

6) Can we all put to rest this talk now of Brees breaking Marino's record? I've been telling people all along, it just takes one game to fall way off pace. That happened Sunday, and Brees played pretty well. He went from needing 303 yards a game to needing 329. That's a tall order in the blistering cold of Chicago and against the Panthers.

Lopes and I put together a chart of the five QBs who have three consecutive seasons with at least 4,000 yards passing, a club Brees joined Sunday. It's Brees, Manning (don't ask which one; that's not funny), Marino, Fouts and Green. Yup. Trent Green.

While making this chart, I discovered my new favorite stat. Mostly because it makes Marino the answer to the question: Who's the best passer in NFL history? Observe.

No. of seasons with 4,400 yards passing.
Marino: 4.
Brees: 3 (after 300 more yards this season).
Manning: 2.
Fouts: 2.
Favre: 1.
Elway: 0.

I rest my case, your honor.

7) The two plays that won the game.

a) Falcons 25, Saints 22. 7:51 remaining. Pierre Thomas' 88-yard kickoff return to the Falcons' 16.

Thomas broke three tackles, put a move on the punter and eventually got caught. Said Thomas: "If Roby was in there, it would have been a touchdown. I'm a little too slow."

Umm, Courtney Roby would have got to the same yard-line as Thomas did. Yeah. All the way down to the Saints' 16. You see, Pierre, Roby might be faster than you, but he would never have made it past the rats. (Sorry, Indiana Jones reference.) I mean past the three tackles that you broke.

b) Falcons 25, Saints 22. Fourth-and-1. Saints ball at the Falcons' 7. 6:16 remaining.

While I was watching the game, I announced to mom: "This is one ballsy call here by the Saints. I mean they can just tie the score with an easy field goal." Mom: "Stop talking to me about the goddamn game."

As I reflected on the play on the drive into work, I came to the conclusion that Payton made the right call in going for it. Sure, the field goal seems like the logical choice there. But in the Falcons' previous two possessions, they ran 26 plays for 142 yards and took 14:19 off the clock. (The Falcons converted four out of five third-down conversions on those two drives for 10 points.)

Payton's logic is thus: "I believe in my offense. They can get this first down and then take the lead with a touchdown. I don't believe in my defense. If I tie the score at 25 with six minutes left, Matt Ryan and Co. might just run out the clock and kick a game-winning field goal, preventing my boy Drew from getting the ball again. Well, I can't have any of that. We shall go for it."

After all, if you can't move the pile for 1 lousy yard, then you don't deserve to still be in the playoff hunt. Good decision, coach. Want to meet at the casino sometime this week?

THE TINA CURSING CORNER

My mom is reading about O.J.'s sentence. "Well, good. At least he got something for the fucking murder. What goes around comes back around, baby."

I tell mom that T.I. was the musical guest on SNL this week. "Who the fuck is T.I.?"

Mom gets upset with me, and I apologize. "Stop saying, 'sorry,' and start fucking learning."

Mom gives me breaking news. "Britney's tour starts here. I bet it fucking sells out."

TV WEEK IN REVIEW

Best scene. House. House making Kutner believe that he had killed a patient and then having the dead patient "come back to life" and spook the shit out of Kutner. He certainly had me fooled. Beautiful stuff.

Best line. Pushing Daises. Chuck asks Emerson to say a little something after they bury the dead body of the Season 2 bad guy. Emerson: "Come on. Get holy. ... Here lies Dwight. Here lies his gun. He was bad. And now he's done."

Best guest star. Heroes. Seth Green. I didn't realize last week that he was going to be on again. He got to live the dream of every nerd, watching a comic book come to life in front of him. Best. Day. Ever.

Best fight scene: Chuck. Casey using Chuck's motivation of love to defeat his sensei. Totally badass.

This week's rant. Mid-season break. I hate this holiday break crap where shows don't come on again until January. I'm not a fan of having to wait four or five or six weeks to see what happens next in a show. I want to know next week dammit. By the time a show returns, I forget where we left off on the adventure. Also, I have a lot less to talk to people about.

There is an advantage, though. I have a lot more free time in the weeks to come (Heroes turn of phrase). I can catch up on some DVD watching. I can catch up on some movies. I don't have to worry about watching everything.

I think there's still like two more weeks of new shows. I'm just anticipating my anger.

THE GENE POOL DOES IT AGAIN

The Gators of Florida will take on the Sooners of Oklahoma for the national championship. They will both try to triumph by kicking a pigskin ball through a giant "H." Yes, Mr. McDowell, I will lay off the drugs. Who could have seen this matchup coming?

Well, I'll tell you who. Me. That's right. In the Alabama-LSU running diary posted Nov. 8, I hinted that the title game would be Florida and Oklahoma. Seems pretty easy now, but when I made that pick, Florida was No. 5 in the BCS standings and Oklahoma No. 6. Nov. 8 was the same day Penn State fell from the ranks of the unbeaten. (I had told Bake weeks earlier that Penn State would not run the gauntlet.)

Now, the next day the Gators and Sooners each moved up a spot. My picked assumed the following that happened: 1) Oklahoma over Texas Tech. 2) Florida over Bama (who didn't pick that?) 3) Oklahoma jumping Texas in the polls. Apparently, I'm a genius.

I'm not ready to make a pick for the title game, but I can tell you to bet the over. SHOOTOUT.

PARTING SHOTS
I'm about to tell Jelly that she became the first person to reach 1,000 points in our T-P NFL picks pool.

Me: Jelly, you became the first person in the league to. ...
Jelly (jumping the gun): The first to pass the century mark?
Lopes: I think that would be the millennium mark.

I see that Dan Marino's dad died. The funeral service is in Pittsburgh on Friday. I tell Phil that we should go on a trip to the Steel City.

JRap: Gene will ride in baggage.
Liam: Gene is baggage.

The Redskins make a good play on Sunday Night Football.

Me: Hey, Sandy. The Skins are showing signs of life.
Sandy: People in comas show signs of life.

THE DAILY TOP LIST
My top five Vince Vaughn movies.

5) Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story. 2004.
See Ben Stiller top five.

4) The Break-Up. 2006.
I didn't like this movie at first. Then, it grew on me when I kept watching twenty-minute chunks when it aired on HBO 24/7.

3) Swingers. 1996.
I'm looking for some beautiful babies.

2) Old School. 2003.
Ear muffs. I will definitely use this if I have children.

1) Wedding Crashers. 2005.
I just about have his speech to Owen Wilson memorized at the beginning when Wilson's character tries to convince Vaughn's character to go on a date.

P.S. I wrote this entry from Marcus' computer. Hope he doesn't mind.